Good Morning America. It's a near perfect morning in our little town in S W New Mexico. Ill let you digest the latest, and will avoid too many comments on how this data might be interpreted. But you can read some of the recent blog post to get a good idea of how we feel...
From NAR Breaking News 1-26-2009
December Existing Home Sale numbers INCREASE - On the surface - Good news
Sales Up 6.5% (December) to Total 4.74 Million Units annual Rate
This represents an improvement of 3.5%**
Median Home Price (December) is now $175,400 - Poor News but mostly expected
This is a DECLINE in price (Wow) of 15.3% (MyOMyO) from December 2007 and THIS IS THE LARGEST MEDIAN HOME PRICE DECLINE EVER - largest single year drop since the NAR began tracking data in 1968.
NEW!!! since original post - What this suggests is the annual decline 2008 (median $198,600 for year 2008) vs. 2007 median home price (a decline in pricing of 9.3%) actually increased in it's negative momentum towards the end of the year - perhaps at it's peak at the end of 2008. Please correct me if Im wrong in this, but I believe this is the lowest ANNUAL median home price in 4-5 years.
Does this negative price trend continue? January numbers should be interesting. My outlook for national house prices remains bearish for most of 2009. I Believe that prices must continue to slide in those specific markets that are even now reeling from cascading values.
Those who know the Silver City area market watch this more like it is happening to other folks in another country. We are not selling the quantity of homes that were sold in the boom years (we had 10-12 pretty good market years in a row with 100% plus appreciation) and prices have pulled back from the latest highs. However as you are aware, we remain mostly unscathed from major pullbacks as seen elsewhere, and I believe a small pullback in pricing will only help to strengthen our market by returning real value to the real products we list and sell through the MLS service.. END OF NEW
Inventories Nationwide FELL 11.7 % to 3.68 million listings - Yes less inventory appears to be very good news.
Fewer listings coupled with rising sales impacts inventory in positive ways.
Current inventory has dropped (improved) to a 9.3 months supply 11.2 months for December 2008.
Remember ONE MONTH DOES NOT MAKE A TREND - but the occasional glimmer of hope for an improving market is welcome.
I think the numbers are not truly telling all of the story. However, if seemingly good news creates positive feelings that we have turned a corner, and this alone may help hesitant potential buyers sitting on the fence take action, well it is good.
As I have hinted here before, it is the underlying financial crises (much of it yet to fully be understood or experienced -IMO) which has caused the disturbing part of the news - the median home price decline. Declining prices are exactly the worst thing to happen to homeowners who are already upside down in their mortgages.
** How many of these were "non arms length" type transactions. I fear these improved numbers represent a large number of forced sales...
RETURN TO DREAM HOME NEW MEXICO
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