Predictions from Financial Giant - News

Credit Suisse Bank (CS) has announced some shocking 2009 projections on home sales. I am posting this here so you can see what kind of market the banking professionals are predicting:

NAR and Credit Suisse are in agreement - 5,000,000 homes will be sold in 2009. Ok. That doesn't sound that bad. Hmmm. What's the shocking part?

Here's the rub. CS predicts that of the 5 million homes that sell this year, 2.5 million will be REO sales or Short Sales or properties involving some form of distressed situation (pre-foreclosure, forced or unwilling seller type sales, and actual foreclosures included).

This means that up to 50% of the folks on the selling side (in many areas) will be selling as a short sale or the property will be sold as a REO (Bank owned property).

It is reported that 50% of all people with mortgages today are Upside down in that mortgage. Do you owe more than you can reasonably expect to sell the property for? This is what it means to be upside down. Being upside down does not mean looming foreclosure. Most of us will do what we have to and will make the payments responsibly regardless of what's owed and what it can be sold for. In time, we know that many upside down mortgages will "right" themselves as markets resume some sort of historical appreciation mode.

How does this break down annually? According to CS, there will be at least 2 million new foreclosures in each of the years 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. That's another 8 Million at a minimum over the next four years. Scary isn't it? Especially when you consider CS is considered conservative in such predictions. (in other words it could actually be worse)

I see this as being an economy problem more so than a housing problem (but that is subject for another time)...

I wish I was positioned to be buying again, but it seems we are already up up to our neck in property. I'm not sure I can fit another project on the plate. It's just that I feel that some great values are here to be had, and the 5%, 30 year, fixed interest rates have me thinking of "property wish lists" again.....

2008 was tough for most all of us in this business. Many Realtors fell by the wayside. Many more will follow. Most toughed it out as they could, while a few of us spent time investigating and preparing for what seems to be a new chapter in the real estate book. I feel that the rules and ways of doing business are changing and that these things will be unusual (in the traditional sense) for at least the next several years. What worked for folks then, well... it just may not work so well going forward.

"Hey Mr Realtor... Don't bother me with an 8 track show - It's mp3 or nothing for me"....... John Q Public 2009

Archer is here to help you sell your home before the big "F" is burned onto the forehead of your credit report.

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I want to help 5 families who are upside down with their home mortgage. (I have to limit my activity to a number that I can service properly and professionally). I am currently not interested in working with folks who are only thinking they want to sell. I'm not interested in folks who only list to test the market - looking for someone to pay them more money than the property is actually worth in a fair market. I sincerely want to hear from folks who are in trouble. Folks who know they HAVE TO sell. Do you NEED to sell or lose your home? If you MUST DO SOMETHING NOW, please contact me today and hear what options you have.

aarcher(AT)dreamhomenewmexico.com

(five seven five) 388-2875 Home Office Message Line

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New Silver City Web Site of interest

SilverCityOrg

Things are happening in Silver City and Grant County New Mexico. A quick note to let you know that silvercityorg is now online (a new google sites site) - and it is alive and well. Hope that you find the new site useful and that you continue to come back here and spend some Quality time with us.

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a word from one of the site sponsors: GOLD and SILVER WANTED

Did you know that you can now get fair prices locally for your unwanted gold and silver scrap. Sponsor is buying scrap jewelry (not interested in stones), dental gold, gold and silver coins and bullion in small quantities. Paying the highest locally advertised prices - and you will be assured of actually getting paid vs. using one of the tube's "we buy gold" companies. We can do a quick assay of value together, and you get paid on the spot - based upon current spot prices as on the London precious metal exchange. Why receive only 70% of value. Paying up to 92% for bullion coins. Less for scrap. Wow!!!

Please call Alan @ five seven five 388-2875 (home office message line). Please leave a best time for a call back. I will return your call asap after work. Need to do most of my buying on weekends or early evening sometimes is possible, but will return the calls asap so we can schedule a time to get together.

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Breaking News from NAR - December 2009 Home Sales

Good Morning America. It's a near perfect morning in our little town in S W New Mexico. Ill let you digest the latest, and will avoid too many comments on how this data might be interpreted. But you can read some of the recent blog post to get a good idea of how we feel...

From NAR Breaking News 1-26-2009

December Existing Home Sale numbers INCREASE - On the surface - Good news
Sales Up 6.5% (December) to Total 4.74 Million Units annual Rate
This represents an improvement of 3.5%**


Median Home Price (December) is now $175,400 - Poor News but mostly expected
This is a DECLINE in price (Wow) of 15.3% (MyOMyO) from December 2007 and THIS IS THE LARGEST MEDIAN HOME PRICE DECLINE EVER - largest single year drop since the NAR began tracking data in 1968.

NEW!!! since original post - What this suggests is the annual decline 2008 (median $198,600 for year 2008) vs. 2007 median home price (a decline in pricing of 9.3%) actually increased in it's negative momentum towards the end of the year - perhaps at it's peak at the end of 2008. Please correct me if Im wrong in this, but I believe this is the lowest ANNUAL median home price in 4-5 years.
Does this negative price trend continue? January numbers should be interesting. My outlook for national house prices remains bearish for most of 2009. I Believe that prices must continue to slide in those specific markets that are even now reeling from cascading values.

Those who know the Silver City area market watch this more like it is happening to other folks in another country. We are not selling the quantity of homes that were sold in the boom years (we had 10-12 pretty good market years in a row with 100% plus appreciation) and prices have pulled back from the latest highs. However as you are aware, we remain mostly unscathed from major pullbacks as seen elsewhere, and I believe a small pullback in pricing will only help to strengthen our market by returning real value to the real products we list and sell through the MLS service.. END OF NEW

Inventories Nationwide FELL 11.7 % to 3.68 million listings - Yes less inventory appears to be very good news.
Fewer listings coupled with rising sales impacts inventory in positive ways.
Current inventory has dropped (improved) to a 9.3 months supply 11.2 months for December 2008.

Remember ONE MONTH DOES NOT MAKE A TREND - but the occasional glimmer of hope for an improving market is welcome.

I think the numbers are not truly telling all of the story. However, if seemingly good news creates positive feelings that we have turned a corner, and this alone may help hesitant potential buyers sitting on the fence take action, well it is good.

As I have hinted here before, it is the underlying financial crises (much of it yet to fully be understood or experienced -IMO) which has caused the disturbing part of the news - the median home price decline. Declining prices are exactly the worst thing to happen to homeowners who are already upside down in their mortgages.

** How many of these were "non arms length" type transactions. I fear these improved numbers represent a large number of forced sales...

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Do Nothing At Your Own Risk

Personal message to Southern New Mexico property owners concerned over being upside down in a property home mortgage. Email aarcher (at)dreamhomenewmexico.com or call (5xx)-388-2875 Home Office Message line to set up a time when we can discuss some of the services and options which may be available to you.

There are many good people in our area who may now feel like they have gotten a body part caught in the wringer while doing the wash (figuratively that is).

Understand that you do have options. Some options are better than others. Some good and some not so. Do you know what your options are?

YOU MUST FIRST ACKNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTAND THAT DOING NOTHING IS THE WORST THING THAT YOU CAN DO.

Once a distressed property owner accepts the fact that there is trouble on the doorstep or on the horizon, it's possible to shake off the lethargy and inaction (often accompanied with depression) and get moving towards the best of the options available.

Short Sales are possible for some. Listing and Selling at current market value even if you owe (considerably) more than the house is worth. Requires bank cooperation. I can help in the process.

Real Estate Angels might help. If you have some equity, but have allowed past due payments to pile up so that you are now considerably delinquent and unable to catch up, let an angel step in and "clean the slate" for you. My list of angels is limited to a few, but they are quick and efficient to close when they find the right circumstances.

Live Auction works for some who have special needs and circumstances. Note - You can't be short on equity with live auctions, but there is no better way to guarantee a sale within a specific time frame. Let the buyer pay most of your selling costs too. For Sellers, who just want to get on with it and get her sold, this a great venue for it......

Love the auctioneer chant: "one hundred thousand now one fifty. do i hear one fifty? One hundred fifty thousand ... now two. will you give me two?

In every case there are sponsored counseling services (many free) which can point you in the right direction. This is a first step for everyone who is worried about what might be ahead. Part of my job and responsibility as Realtor is to provide you with resource information...

Foreclosure will inevitably be the end result for too many fine folks who purchased with good intention who just got caught up in the financial crisis and meltdown. Foreclosure will be the result for all who do nothing.

Anything you do is better than giving up and letting the foreclosure process move forward...

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5 Common First -Time Homebuyer Mistakes

Todays tips courtesy of NAR and realestatechecklists.com. Thanks for the goods....

Have you visited the DHNM website recently? Please visit and see what's new. As always, free MLS data searches and never have to provide any sort of personal or private information to use.

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5 Common First-Time Homebuyer Mistakes

1. They don’t ask enough questions of their lender and miss out on the best deal.

2. They don’t act quickly enough to make a decision and someone else buys the house.

3. They don’t find the right real estate professional who is willing to help you through the homebuying process.

4. They don’t do enough to make their offer look good to a seller.

5. They don’t think about resale before they buy. The average first-time buyer only stays in a home for four years.

Form # 17 Reprinted with permission from Real Estate Checklists and Systems (www.realestatechecklists.com)

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Hope that you call me for all of your real estate needs, concerns, and issues. I am happy to discuss any related questions you have regarding the local real estate market. Do you have a specific need or concern that you would like to discuss privately. Please call 800-368-5632 Extension 17 or 575-388-2875 home office messages) OR email*... Archer will help you hit your real estate targets and goals.

*email: archer(at)dreamhomenewmexico.com (you know what to do)

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Tips for the First Time Home Buyer

----aarcher on target----->

Thanks again to the NAR for providing more solid information for Buyers and Sellers.

I'm focusing these days on Buyer tips as it seems that the more savvy buyer investors are aware of the excellent conditions to purchase, and are stepping up and submitting offers.

Veteran Buyers and Investors are already taking advantage of these historically low mortgage rates and the (slightly) depressed prices which we are seeing in Silver City. I hope to help First Timers understand that it is important to get moving now to take advantage of what might be the best buying opportunity that we have seen or will see in years.

IMO - There simply hasn't been a better time to purchase property here in the 5+ years I have been working daily in this real estate market. Serious Investor Buyers are active (lookers are laying low - thank you), and intelligent sellers are working with the RE Pros and are making marketing adjustments designed to get THEIR property looked at and sold...

Buyer's handout 18 is posted below. Good information especially for the FIRST TIME HOME BUYER and for the Buyer who has been away from the market for awhile...

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10 Tips for First-Time Home Buyers

1. Be picky, but don’t be unrealistic. There is no perfect home.

2. Do your homework before you start looking. Decide specifically what features you want in a home and which are most important to you.

3. Get your finances in order. Review your credit report and be sure you have enough money to cover your down payment and your closing costs.

4. Don’t wait to get a loan. Talk to a lender and get prequalified for a mortgage before you start looking.

5. Don’t ask too many people for opinions. It will drive you crazy. Select one or two people to turn to if you feel you need a second opinion.

6. Decide when you could move. When is your lease up? Are you allowed to sublet? How tight is the rental market in your area?

7. Think long-term. Are you looking for a starter house with the idea of moving up in a few years or do you hope to stay in this home longer? This decision may dictate what type of home you’ll buy as well as the type of mortgage terms that suit you best.

8. Don’t let yourself be “house poor”. If you max yourself out to buy the biggest home you can afford, you’ll have no money left for maintenance or decoration or to save money for other financial goals.

9. Don’t be naïve. Insist on a home inspection and, if possible, get a warranty from the seller to cover defects within one year.

10. Get help. Consider hiring a REALTOR as a buyer’s representative. Unlike a listing agent, whose first duty is to the seller, a buyer’s representative is working only for you. And often, buyer’s reps are paid out of the seller’s commission payment.


#18
Reprinted from REALTOR® Magazine Online by permission of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Copyright 2005. All rights reserved. www.REALTOR.org/realtormag

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There are many resources available to new home owners. It's important to start the process well in advance of any potential purchase date. Everything takes time. It takes time to determine what kind of $ the banks will loan you. The credit report needs to be checked and if their are issues or inaccuracies, these will certainly be problematic... Once you know what you can spend and know that your credit history is not going to be an issue, you can start the process with your Realtor to locate the right property.

** The following is a straight forward attempt at earning your business**

2009 will be a year with challenges to all of us. Many homeowners will face difficulty, and find themselves becoming unwilling Sellers. There are options. Not all options are going to be good, but generally some options are considerably less painful. I would be happy to speak with you if you have any questions.

2009 will be a year where buyers - both veteran and first timers - may be facing a once in a decade or two buying opportunity. I may be wrong. There are no guarantees that further declines and national financial concerns wont effect our town in negative ways. I just feel that fair value and slight discount to fair market value is a real possibility right now.

Buyers and Sellers - You know what it is worth to you. Right? You need more than a feeling. Get an appraisal to be certain. Your Realtor (Me) will provide property information on comparable properties to yours so you can see the data that others (Banks, appraisers,courts) rely on when money is on the line. I like to do this for my customers, as the more knowledge that they have about the market, the better equipped to make the all important decisions when looking at a contract. Please visit my web site ----aarcher---->

** This ends my straight forward attempt at earning your business**

I suggest you investigate lending options. Get with a Realtor who understands and welcomes the challenges of helping 1st time home buyers. I love working with first time home buyers as I know when I help them purchase their first home, that I'll be called when friends and family members need help. Most first time homeowners become second, third, and more time home buyers. I know Ill get the call for those additional purchases...

Want to search todays MLS database or Houses, land parcels, multi family units, and commercial buildings for sale? FREE MLS SEARCH

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Reduce Home Buying Trauma - NAR - First Time Buyer or Veteran of many Trades

Continued Happy New Years to everyone from Archer and family. I thought Id post a sample of some of the Buyers and Sellers Tips that have been generously provided for us by the NAR. There is some really good information and common sense in these hand outs. Take advantage of the free offer and request any of the handouts listed previously.

I am working on getting the Handouts for Sellers Table of contents list posted too.

Can you believe that almost 45% of the homes reported sold in December were Foreclosure properties or Short Sale candidates.

Short Sales require a patient Realtor who understands the complexity of the process. But short sales are not for everyone. In fact not everyone "upside down" in their home can even qualify for a short sale. Frankly there may be other (better ?) options for homeowners who are now having payment issues with their homes. Ask your RE professional if you are a candidate for loan modification, short sale, or one of several other measures designed to get you through the hard times. A Realtor worth his salt will have a handle on the options that distressed home owners are facing.

I will be happy to discuss your situation personally and privately, and can give you resources that may be able to help.

It's even possible for Sellers to sell traditionally (with little or no credit damage) if the debt and value numbers are not too out of balance.

Buyers handout 19 is posted below. Good information especially for the FIRST TIME HOME BUYER or for the Buyer who has been away from the market for awhile...

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10 Things to Take the Trauma Out of Homebuying

1. Find a real estate professional who's simpatico. Homebuying is not only a big financial
commitment, but also an emotional one. It's critical that the practitioner you choose is
both skilled and a good fit with your personality.

2. Remember, there's no "right" time to buy, any more than there's a right time to sell. If
you find a home now, don't try to second-guess the interest rates or the housing market
by waiting. Changes don't usually occur fast enough to make that much difference in
price, and a good home won't stay on the market long.

3. Don't ask for too many opinions. It's natural to want reassurance for such a big decision,
but too many ideas will make it much harder to make a decision.

4. Accept that no house is ever perfect. Focus in on the things that are most important to you
and let the minor ones go.

5. Don't try to be a killer negotiator. Negotiation is definitely a part of the real estate
process, but trying to"win" by getting an extra-low price may lose you the home you
love.

6. Remember your home doesn't exist in a vacuum. Don't get so caught up in the physical
aspects of the house itself--room size, kitchen-that you forget such issues as amenities,
noise level, etc., that have a big impact on what it's like to live in your new home.

7. Don't wait until you've found a home and made an offer to get approved for a mortgage,
investigate insurance availability, and consider a schedule for moving. Presenting an
offer contingent on a lot of unresolved issues will make your bid much less attractive to
sellers.

8. Factor in maintenance and repair costs in your post-homebuying budget. Even if you buy
a new home, there will be some costs. Don't leave yourself short and let your home
deteriorate.

9. Accept that a little buyer's remorse is inevitable and will probably pass. Buying a home,
especially for the first time, is a big commitment, but it also yields big benefits.

10. Choose a home first because you love it; then think about appreciation. While U.S.
homes have appreciated an average of 5.4 percent annually from 1998 to 20A2, a home's
most important role is as a comfortable, safe place to live.

Chapter 19

Reprinted from Realtor Magazine Online by permission of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORs

Copyright 2005. All rights reserved. www.REALTOR.org/realtormag

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