National Association of Realtors President: A Good Time to Buy
“For buyers able to qualify for conventional financing, there are ample opportunities in the current market,” says NAR President Pat V. Combs.
“Availability and pricing of conventional loans are reasonable, and FHA-insured mortgage applications have been rising as low- and moderate-income buyers seek alternatives to subprime loans.”
“If buyers are in it for the long haul, now can be a good time to get into your home.”
My take on this.
Good news for potential Buyers. If you and your agent take the time to do some homework and eliminate the few blue sky priced listings that not only press the top of reasonable price, but appear considerably out of line with fair market prices, you will be able to find suitable properties of the basic style and type that you are looking for - that are priced fairly - and that provides the kinds of potential to more than just meet your needs.
It is important to work with an agent who is concerned with finding a property which meets your needs and at a price which market data will support as fair and reasonable. I also would expect my agent to be somewhat concerned about being paid for the work that he/she does. (? What?)
(If he didn't care about getting the paycheck - Well now that would concern me for multiple reasons)..
However if I am buying property, I would expect and hope my agent is more concerned about finding the right property at the right price, than have him concerned with how large the eventual paycheck he gets will be. The amount on the stub is usually determined by the final buying/selling price.
Good news for Silver City Sellers. The well conditioned home in decent location when listed at a reasonable - fair market value will get offers to purchase, and in a reasonably normal time frame. The market in Silver City still seems pretty good IMO.
In a really weak market (which thankfully we in Silver have mostly been spared from feeling the sting of) even the "real deal" homes often take considerably more than average time to sell if they sell at all. Buyer’s in every region are tending to become more wary due to the unknowns of questionable and volatile markets as portrayed nightly in the national news..
In our current Silver City market, when Sellers enlist the help of competent representation, and price their homes so they will get seen (you gotta have showings to sell it), they will get offers and their homes will sell. Patience always required as a caveat.
Rule of thumb worth remembering - unless there is an environmental issue or an obsolete feature that just can't be overcome, there is one main reason why a home does not get shown or sold. You guessed it. The Price is set too high...
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July 2007 Housing Statistics
Regional Sales for Existing Home Sales
- West: rose 1.8 percent in July to an annual pace of 1.12 million, but are 15.2 percent below a year ago. Median price: $349,400, up 0.9 percent from July 2006.
- Northeast: increased 1 percent to a level of 1.02 million in July, but are 2.9 percent lower than July 2006. Median price: $290,900, up 5.9 percent from a year ago.
- South: unchanged at an annual rate of 2.26 million in July, but are 10.7 percent below a year ago. Median price: $186,300, down 3.2 percent from July 2006.
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $228,900 in July, down 0.6 percent from July 2006 when the median was $230,200 — the highest monthly price on record.
The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.
Total housing inventory rose 5.1 percent at the end of June to 4.59 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.6-month supply at the current sales pace.
That number is up from an upwardly revised 9.1-month supply in June.
The national average commitment rate for a 30 year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.7 percent in July, up from 6.66 percent in June, according to Freddie Mac.
The rate was 6.76 percent in July 2006.
Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate dropped to 6.52 percent.
Overall, single-family home sales dipped 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 million in July from an upwardly revised level of 5.02 million in June. Those numbers are 9.3 percent below the year-ago pace of 5.51 million units. The median existing single-family home price was $228,600 in July, down 1 percent from July 2006.
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As you would expect in data using such large geographic regions as base, there are localized hot and cold areas in each region. Some local area sales were hit hard - while others have held ground mostly neutral to slightly negative – with others actually seeing improved markets. These localized hot and cold spots can be very small as in community sized like ours or can be large and extend across the county (or multiple counties) in some cases...
Judging the Silver City real estate market from the floor calls we take and from the stats we see, it appears that interest in the area remains good, and sales in this area remain pretty solid as well –
(SIDEBAR - ok I admit this is not the fantastic market we enjoyed late 2005 and most all of 2006 - but it's decent all the same - and realize that the 05-06 period was very good, well above the normal)
- but it’s been solid in the way that sales are regular/steady in occurrence, and it seems that the actual SOLD prices are higher than what might be expected in what the talking heads call a soft market. We know from the current total listing count and from the sold property data that just as there are plentiful willing Sellers to be found, it's pretty obvious that there are decent numbers of willing and able Buyers out there as well.
SIDEBAR-Things in our market are "ok" for now. However, the folks with high risk low equity mortgages and the folks holding their funny money paper have yet to see how this reported national crises will play out. No one can say for certain how the rash of EZ to get, low/no equity loan programs, you know, the Everyone Who Wants One Gets One home and home equity loan campaign from the last couple of years will play out for us locally. But I am certain that foreclosures will be on the rise.
High foreclosure rates mean that Real Estate Angels (REA) may be needed on scene (a topic for a future article perhaps?) with the expected increasing foreclosure rates looming. The REA that I work with are in good position and seem to still have a bit of miracle money to share.
It appears that there will be more inventory made available for Buyers down the road - Possibly the result of the "subprime meltdown" and latest national mortgage lender crunch. Owners of modest and lower priced homes are believed will be hardest hit by the foreclosure process, but there may be some very pricey lessons learned at the highest dollar home value level in a few special major markets.
Sellers in the Silver area can and should keep heart and faith that we will continue to dodge the bad real estate scenarios here.
Buyers get ready. Serious Buyers may want to check their finances and confirm the credit report is clean - to be sure the powder is dry and ready for use.Value properties still show up regularly in the MLS. The value deals do go pretty quickly however, and you or your Realtor have to be paying attention and watching the market every day.
TIP - Even if you know 100% you will get a loan, it usually pays to get pre-qualified at the bank you plan to use. Getting pre-qualified is a simple process, and usually only requires a few minutes. A PQ letter from the bank adds weight to your offer. Be ready to act, and good luck...
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The folks who are investing now take a bit of risk, but it is a (hopefully) calculated, reasonably low risk with potentially awesome returns following the next boom in consumer confidence. I believe we (USA) will come through the nation's financial messes ok especially in the longer term view, but how long it will take to wash out the crap (it is deep) and how much pain we will feel as a nation before the washing is over, no one can say.
Those responsible in the subprime lender organizations for abuses and lending policies now gone bad will hopefully get their heads handed to them. (At least have the keys to their house and their Mercedes taken away). We've got to also get a handle on the mounting national debt. How many trillions before we look at changing direction? That's another story.
Most of us accept there will be some pain ahead - but it will remain mostly localized. Better days straight ahead for Silver City? Will there be a curve before the straightaway? Stay safe with Silver...
L8TR ... ----Archer----->
1 comment:
Just in. 8-30-2007
2nd Quarter stat just flashed on the CNBC ticker.
2006 vs. 2007 home prices are up in NM by 8.65%. We are in the top five nationally for price appreciation. It is very varied by locale as you would expect. Can't wait to see the community breakdown.
The Talking Heads say the real estate market is actually not too bad overall. Repeated MOSTLY LOCALIZED PROBLEMS at least three times in the one discussion.
I rarely side with THs but the numbers do seem to agree with what hey are saying and with the general premise of this blog article.
L8TR ----Archer----->
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