June 2008 Housing National Data

Hot off the ticker information courtesy of NAR and the talkin heads at CNBC...

Existing Home Sales fell in June by 2.6% (a seasonally adjusted rate) with 4.86 million sold units, the lowest sales reported since 1998. Existing Home sales dropped 15.5% from June 2007.

Inventory of existing homes is up another .2% to a total of 4.49 units. This represents an 11.1 month supply of available homes. Ouch. This number just keeps growing. Note - Silver City inventory has inched up as well, but days on market for sold properties has declined substantially..

Median Home price for existing homes sold was $215,100 which is down 6.1% from June of 2007, and this is the lowest since 2004.

You will want to see this Silver City site built home

Regionally:
The Northeast reported -6.6% sales of existing homes
The Midwest reported --3.4%
The South reported -3.1%
with the West showing an increase of 1%.

Why an increase out West???

Perhaps because the West has seen prices drop across the board a big 17%. When a market takes a crapper, some of the good deals get washed out too, and create potential value for bottom fishing. Some savvy buyers are obviously active and some are scoring big out West.

Search all of the MLS listings and FSBO too

Disturbing News - Well Yes IMO

Western State Realtors (California) have polled that 33% to 40% of the existing homes being sold are in some form " foreclosure properties". Wow..... Enough said...

Things are going surprisngly well now in Silver City with the common expression "slammed" being used by many of the recently "Maytag" like real estate professionals. Yep we are getting busy. Buyers and sellers have found some level of comfort in our somewhat stable market.

You gotta love this place for any number of reasons..... ---aarcher--->

Silver City Real Estate - 2nd Quarter stats and projections

Hi Friends of Silver City,

Activity seems to be on the rise (as normal and as expected) with the arrival of summer. In light of the national real estate crisis, things in our market continue to be "ok to about average" in our community. The word on the street is that things have picked up a notch or two and are increasing and improving - I echo this sentiment, especially over the last 4-5 weeks...

The 2nd Quarter of 2008 shows a total of 80 units SOLD (for all classes of property). Quarter 1 reports show 64 units reported sold in comparison.


Breaking this down for Residential sales - Quarter 2 reports 51 residential class listings selling at an average of $161,902 per unit. The residential number is up 2 units (from the 49 residential listings sold in Q1), but the average price has seen some slippage with the Q1 average being $169,751. Interesting that the DOM (Days on Market) have actually decreased for this important category - from 183 DOM in Q1 to only 140 DOM in Q2. (CORRECTION MADE 7-23-2008) Stats were re-posted and were corrected from 183 DOM listed in 2007 and should read 139... Virtually no change in DOM...

When we explore how the sales of residential listings for the 2nd Q of 2008 stacks up against 2007 and 2006 results, the following interesting data turns up:

2006 2nd Q - residential sales reported were 102 with an average sales price of $164,709
2007 2nd Q - residential sales reported were 96 with an average sales price of $191,575 (?)
2008 2nd Q - residential sales reported were 51 units with an average price of $161,902

Search all of the listings for free at the Premier Real Estate website serving Grant County

Go with the trend! Following the trends is the way to go if you are picking stocks. I don't believe we should put too much faith in trend lines for real estate as in the decline which the annual comparison of number's suggest. Those of us who watch the market data closely KNOW that we are in turn around mode in many of the nation's hardest hit communities. IMO -There will be additional (considerable) pain for some very specific regions ahead. The areas most discussed by the talking heads (San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Miami, etc..) are reeling from the hurt, and they have much more to give back before they are done I fear. In areas like Silver City, however, we have been saved from the "big pain" that others are feeling - and our market is seeing signs of an up-tic. Perhaps we are seeing the flat to slight downtrend here reversed. I believe that the next Quarter numbers will accurately reflect additional recovery for our local market.

It is a great time to be looking at investing in the real estate market in this area. There are a few sweet deals to be had, and savvy Buyers are in somewhat aggressive mode. (Savvy) Sellers have started giving up the dream of making obscene profits in very short time frames as well, and a reasonableness in pricing is starting to be displayed. There are profits to be taken, but not EZ "blue sky" profits as before. The not so savvy Sellers may find their properties (currently priced above fair market value) likely to continue to sit with little activity from potential buyers.

State of Affairs -Properties without functional or environmental obsolescence and that are priced reasonably, are seeing decent to good activity, with many offers to purchase in well below average DOM...

It takes a good Realtor to help you price your home properly so that it sees good activity, just as it takes a good Realtor to keep you from snapping up the deal that really isn't a deal. Don't place an offer based upon what someone is asking. You need to understand and study the current market values for Sold and Active listings. You really need the aid of a service and brokerage with a network of skilled professionals to be effective in this kind of market. What you don't need is someone who looks primarily at the commissions* to be earned when identifying and helping you find potential properties.

The rainy season has started, and we are loving it. It's cool and virtually perfect sleeping weather for me. Fire danger is seriously reduced, and we are blessed for that. Our best to those in California who have not been so fortunate.

--aarcher--->

*If it seems your Realtor wants to only show his own office and personal listings, well.... just be wary of the potential for conflict of interest...

US New Home Sales - Gloom and Doom? Maybe in some markets, but not in Silver City!

New Listing - Large 4 bedroom 2.5 bath home in great neighborhood. Curb Appeal.

Just some National Real Estate faqs hot off the press.

MARCH 2008 Data released 4-25-2008 - National New Home Sales (NHS) at lowest rate since 1991.

NHS down 8.5% for March 2008 after

NHS down 5.3% for February 2008.

New Home Supply stats:

New Homes inventory for March 2008 at 11 months*

*This is the highest inventory since Sept 1981.

New Home inventory for February was at 10.2 months.

New Home Median Sales Price for March 2008 is off (down) 13.3% from March 2007

Silver City Residential, Commercial, Farm and Ranch, Multi-family and Vacant Land Search

Ok those are the stats. What does it all mean?

Looks to me like there will be more bargains in new homes in select markets in the coming months. I assume there will be many motivated builders who will find themselves forced to keep the $$$ flowing and who will be offering deep discounts and incentives to move their inventory. This will have negative effects on the resale market as the old will be forced to compete with the new homes being discounted. Why buy used when new is comparably cheap? This is not such a concern here in Silver City as only a very small percentage of our annual sales are considered new home supply.

Silver City ACTIVE residential home inventory continues to creep up with an obvious slowdown in SOLD listings being reported. Remember we experienced a noticeable slowdown in activity over the winter months, and only a few weeks ago did we see anything approaching what we might call normal activity. Since most contracts run 5-6 weeks from showing a property, to getting a contract accepted, through to closing and SOLD status, I am expecting (and hoping) this increased recent activity translates into more SOLD listings being reported a few weeks or so out from today.

If you are waiting for signs of a bottom before buying, you may just miss a great buying opportunity. Deals are out there. Repeat. There are some reasonably priced and attractive opportunities to be had in our market. Not all Sellers are blinded by greed and desire to make a killing off of an unaware (and often out of area) Buyer. There are actually Sellers willing to take reasonable prices. You need an experienced qualified Realtor to help you determine which properties are full of blue sky and which might be considered potentially great investments.

Do your due diligence (DD) by regularly searching and keeping track of new inventroy using one of the popular free websites. It's time to start considering the Realtor you will work with as well. Only after you have done your homework and feel comfortable that you have a handle on the real estate market here, should you venture out alone without the aid of a quality Realtor. I am proud to offer GMAC's Premier Service and Premier Service Guarantee to Buyers and Sellers of New Mexico property. There is a difference in service. I welcome the savvy customer who interviews more than one Realtor, who compares and carefully chooses their Realtor. I challenge you to interview the competition and see what they have to offer. I then challenge the competition to step up to the plate and put in writing their personal and professional guarantee to you. The Premier Service Guarantee* to you is in writing, and it fully describes the golden rule of customer care that I will provide. *

Speaking of Customer Care... Enough lunch time blogging activity. Gotta get back to take proper care of my existing customer's needs. I am able to provide top level service and help 2 more Buyers, and can service perhaps 3-4 additional Seller's properties.

Need a good Realtor? Call Archer @ 800-368-5632 #17 or locally 575-388-1921 #17. I just want the opportunity to earn your business. There is a difference. --aarcher--->

*Premier Service Guarantee Details.

Studying... and an Improving Market?

As school has ended and with test day looming ahead, I may soon be able to devote more time to this blog. That is the plan anyway. Hope you all are well. With my main focus recently having been on taking care of business and my customers, having finally gotten the classroom requirements and obligations out of the way is a real relief. Hopefully that will parlay into time for more posts here.

Market data shows a slight increase in inventory with a slightly higher % of available houses offered for sale. I'm still not seeing much discounting even in light of the increase in inventory.

And... In the same vein. Good news for the local buyers and sellers who have hooked up with a good Realtor. Houses and vacant land are still selling in our market. There are some deals and there are some properties still selling top range of reasonable value. I wouldn't want you to believe that this is a great market. It's not. But it's certainly not a poor market or one appeared heading for crisis* either.

Not all Sellers, Buyers (nor their Realtors) understand how value can be perceived so differently by the different people involved. The classic (spy vs spy) "what I think it's worth" and "what I paid for it" vs. "what someone will actually pay for it" are evident in Silver City as everywhere. The good news is there are Buyers and Sellers (and some of their agents) who manage in these uncertain, mostly non biased markets (a Seller's market vs. Buyer's market) to find common ground and value for the effort. There are plenty of win/win exchanges getting recorded. Real $$ for real property. That all seems pretty healthy to me.

It's a great day to go window shopping. Please visit my favorite website (hint-you don't have to register) and see all of the local Silver City area listed properties. There are some pretty hot commercial offerings in the database too.

Dream Home New Mexico

See you guys soon. Wish me luck. ----archer--->

The real crises is there are way too many active Realtors in the pool. Hehheh. Kidding of course. It's true that we have added a significant number of professionals in the last couple of Quarters, and there are many more right now in the prelicensing stage. (We should feel lucky - Albuquerque boasts 5600 Realtors. Talk about competition). While having a larger number of professionals quartering the whole makes it a bit tougher going for the individual agent involved, as a whole and for the market, it would seem to be of benefit to Sellers and Buyers. i.e. competitive edge, service*, customer care

*GMAC PREMIER SERVICE DETAILS

SOLD 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 SOLD

Hi and welcome to everyone from the Silver City Real Estate Blog. Hope you enjoy the blog, and that you come back often.

Todays entry is a compilation of SOLD STATISTICS for the Silver City, Grant County, and surrounding areas for the periods 2003 thru 2007. As you can see, the market remained reasonably stable in spite of the acknowledged "sub prime" meltdown that is being seen in select markets around the USA.

Before posting the annual results for our area (in table format below), I wanted to post this morning's national statistics just released for the month of November 2007. All 20 of the USA's top markets were down compared to the prior months stats.

And for those who are not keeping track, the following might seem shocking and negative in general for the USA real estate market:

November marks the 11th straight month of price declines in the top 20 markets in the USA. Three of the worst price declines are as expected, Las Vegas, Miami, and San Diego with all three showing price declines in double digits.

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Always Free - Never any registration required to use

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Lets take a look at the annual sales numbers as compiled from the local MLS database. Our data seems to point at a reasonably stable market. Aren't you glad you own here? YOU WILL NEED TO SCROLL WAY DOWN THE SCREEN TO SEE THE EMBEDED TABLES - SORRY FOR THE INCONVENIENCE!
Silver City New Mexico Regional - Sold Market Analysis 2003-2007 (below)

2007	Total	Average Price	Median Price	DOM
All SOLD Listings	546	$168,177	$124,750	187
Residential	331	$188,893	$$160,000	142
Land	188	$91,312	$50,000	268
Commercial	14	$315,364	$227,500	133
Multi-Family	10	$221,950	$183,500	147
Farm/Ranch	3	$1,833,333	$1,600,000	509
2006	Total	Average Price	Median Price	DOM
All SOLD Listings	636	$136,925	$100,000	188
Residential	390	$174,509	$155,000	136
Land	215	$103,555	$61,000	251
Commercial	16	$311,000	$172,500	251
Multi-Family	12	$332,165	$200,000	115
Farm/Ranch	3	$85,333	$$95,000	275
2005	Total	Average Price	Median Price	DOM
All SOLD Listings	711	$136,925	$100,000	235
Residential	458	$154,031	$130,000	136
Land	222	$82,710	$69,079	438
Commercial	17	$301,876	$180,000	298
Multi-Family	9	$118,472	$122,500	111
Farm/Ranch	5	$449,584	$228,800	239
2004	Total	Average Price	Median Price	DOM
All SOLD Listings	622	$118,666	$90,000	210
Residential	442	$126,330	$105,000	170
Land	148	$76,764	$55,125	328
Commercial	20	$224,595	$144,500	279
Multi-Family	12	$176,625	$151,250	120
2003	Total	Average Price	Median Price	DOM
All SOLD Listings	519	$102,340	$79,500	230
Residential	351	$112,652	$90,000	180
Land	143	$60,976	$50,000	327
Commercial	19	$224,847	$196,070	377
Multi-Family	6	$97,000	$70,000	352

It appears that only moderate growth (expected based upon the norms for the region) was recorded locally while other areas participated in the national boom 2004- 2006. This should equate to what we are now experiencing locally - a slowdown, but void of meaningful price reductions. We can be thankful that prices did not sky rocket here and go into a range of false and inflated values like our Florida and California friends experienced.

Home prices remain stable (and are not cheap in a traditional manner), but since we were spared a lot of excess and blue sky pricing these last few years, we should avoid any knee jerk reactions to what is (sadly) happening in major markets elsewhere.

Buyers are getting aggressive with their offers, but Sellers generally have remained firm. Yes we are shifting towards a Buyer's Market, but Sellers are still doing well and are getting close to the asking prices being advertised.

It's important, whether buying or selling, to find a Realtor who will provide honest evaluations of each property based upon the "comps" and competing listings in the area.

It may pay to read the following two statements carefully. It's important to understand why these statements are true in many instances.

A Realtor who will let you list your property at an unreasonable or exaggerated listing price is not your friend, and will actually cost you money in the long term (perhaps a subject for a future posting).

Similarly, a Realtor who will let you place an offer on a property without discussing the market and competing properties is also no friend - and will probably cost you more money as well.

Presidential Candidates on Real Estate - and More

Thought you might enjoy a brief overview of each of the main contender's outlook for real estate and related issues after "they become President." I do not endorse or support any candidate or party in this posting.

This information is taken in part from data at Realtor.org

DEMOCRAT Top Three:
Clinton: Would provide about a Billion to US States. This is targeted to help borrowers avoid foreclosure. Suggests another Billion to help state and local governments with affordable housing trust funds. Would ask Congress to authorize a tax credit helping uninsured households obtain health coverage.

Obama: Would strengthen detection of and punishment of mortgage fraud. Create a new office of Urban Policy to improve delivery of federal funds to urban areas. Would ensure health insurance carriers would make affordable options available to households.

Edwards: Would create fund to help troubled home owners renegotiate subprime loan terms. Proposes moving subsidized renters out of concentrated housing areas by expanding tenant based vouchers. Would require employers to either offer health insurance or help employees buy it on their own.


Search the MLS database of Silver City area properties


REPUBLICAN Four:
Giuliani: Would make Bush's tax cuts permanent and keep marginal tax rates low. Would index alternative minimum tax rates for inflation. Would abolish the estate tax and create tax savings accounts.

McCain: Would enact legislation prohibiting government from taking property for "economic development." Would appoint judges who take a strict constructionist view of private property rights. Would balance the Federal Budget.

Romney: Will propose ZERO taxes on investment for households earning under $200K. Would eliminate high deductibles in health savings accounts. Would provide federal incentives to states to reform their health insurance markets.

Thompson: Would better educate the public, and offer more and better insurance choices. Would dissolve the IRS in it's present form, and create a new tax code based on simplicity, fairness, and economic growth.

The Silver City real estate market is showing signs of the normal Holiday swoon. Realtors polled say they are still getting calls and showings, but snow and Christmas always have some effect, and we are feeling it as expected. This is the time of year for families, friends, and the right spirit.

For those who wish to hunt for your dream property during this time of year, many of us will be available during the Holiday Season. I will be working much of the Holiday Season, and will be happy to help you in your real estate searching. Call 800-368-5632 #17 or contact me through the blog... Merry Christmas and Happy New Year ----aarcher--->

10 Tips for First Time Home Buyers

A few tips for first time Home Buiyers courtesy of the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The suggestions from these NAR handouts will help Buyers prepare for making that first home purchase..

10 Tips for First-Time Home Buyers:

1. Be picky, but don’t be unrealistic. There is no perfect home.

2. Do your homework before you start looking. Decide specifically what features you want in a home and which are most important to you.

3. Get your finances in order. Review your credit report and be sure you have enough money to cover your down payment and your closing costs

4. Don’t wait to get a loan. Talk to a lender and get prequalified for a mortgage before you start looking.

5. Don’t ask too many people for opinions. It will drive you crazy. Select one or two people to turn to if you feel you need a second opinion.

Search the MLS database of Silver City area properties

6. Decide when you could move. When is your lease up? Are you allowed to sublet? How tight is the rental market in your area?

7. Think long-term. Are you looking for a starter house with the idea of moving up in a few years or do you hope to stay in this home longer? This decision may dictate what type of home you’ll buy as well as type of mortgage terms that suit you best.

8. Don’t let yourself be house poor. If you max yourself out to buy the biggest home you can afford, you’ll have no money left for maintenance or decoration or to save money for other financial goals.

9. Don’t be naïve. Insist on a home inspection and if possible get a warranty from the seller to cover defects within one year.

10. Get help. Consider hiring a REALTOR® as a buyer’s representative. Unlike a listing agent, whose first duty is to the seller, a buyer’s representative is working only for you. And often, buyer’s reps are paid out of the seller’s commission payment.