NAR and Credit Suisse are in agreement - 5,000,000 homes will be sold in 2009. Ok. That doesn't sound that bad. Hmmm. What's the shocking part?
Here's the rub. CS predicts that of the 5 million homes that sell this year, 2.5 million will be REO sales or Short Sales or properties involving some form of distressed situation (pre-foreclosure, forced or unwilling seller type sales, and actual foreclosures included).
This means that up to 50% of the folks on the selling side (in many areas) will be selling as a short sale or the property will be sold as a REO (Bank owned property).
It is reported that 50% of all people with mortgages today are Upside down in that mortgage. Do you owe more than you can reasonably expect to sell the property for? This is what it means to be upside down. Being upside down does not mean looming foreclosure. Most of us will do what we have to and will make the payments responsibly regardless of what's owed and what it can be sold for. In time, we know that many upside down mortgages will "right" themselves as markets resume some sort of historical appreciation mode.
How does this break down annually? According to CS, there will be at least 2 million new foreclosures in each of the years 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. That's another 8 Million at a minimum over the next four years. Scary isn't it? Especially when you consider CS is considered conservative in such predictions. (in other words it could actually be worse)
I see this as being an economy problem more so than a housing problem (but that is subject for another time)...
I wish I was positioned to be buying again, but it seems we are already up up to our neck in property. I'm not sure I can fit another project on the plate. It's just that I feel that some great values are here to be had, and the 5%, 30 year, fixed interest rates have me thinking of "property wish lists" again.....
2008 was tough for most all of us in this business. Many Realtors fell by the wayside. Many more will follow. Most toughed it out as they could, while a few of us spent time investigating and preparing for what seems to be a new chapter in the real estate book. I feel that the rules and ways of doing business are changing and that these things will be unusual (in the traditional sense) for at least the next several years. What worked for folks then, well... it just may not work so well going forward.
"Hey Mr Realtor... Don't bother me with an 8 track show - It's mp3 or nothing for me"....... John Q Public 2009
Archer is here to help you sell your home before the big "F" is burned onto the forehead of your credit report.
I want to help 5 families who are upside down with their home mortgage. (I have to limit my activity to a number that I can service properly and professionally). I am currently not interested in working with folks who are only thinking they want to sell. I'm not interested in folks who only list to test the market - looking for someone to pay them more money than the property is actually worth in a fair market. I sincerely want to hear from folks who are in trouble. Folks who know they HAVE TO sell. Do you NEED to sell or lose your home? If you MUST DO SOMETHING NOW, please contact me today and hear what options you have.
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